대출 금리 전망

2024년의 대출 금리 전망은 여러 요인에 의해 영향을 받습니다. 현재까지의 전망 및 예측은 다음과 같습니다.

1. **한은의 금리 인하 예상**
   - [뉴스핌](https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20231231000076)에 따르면, 2024년에는 한국은행이 늦어도 하반기에는 기준금리를 인하할 것으로 전망됩니다[[3](https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20231231000076)].

2. **미국 기준금리 예측**
   - 글로벌 투자은행들은 2024년 말 미국의 기준금리가 4.00~4.75% 수준으로 예측되고 있습니다[[6](http://m.viva100.com/view.php?key=20240101010009311)].

3. **장기 금리 전망**
   - 장기 금리는 2024년 3월 말부터 12월 말까지 1년 동안 58.1bp 하락할 것으로 예상되며, 12월 말에는 2.962%로 예상됩니다[[5](https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20231231000076)].

4. **국내외 금리차의 영향**
   - 국내 기준금리는 미국 통화정책 변화에 동조하여 인하가 전망되지만, 높은 내외 금리차로 제한적일 것으로 예상됩니다[[4](https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/domesticView.do?ac=0000179919)].


1. [새해 기준금리 2~3차례 인하 전망…대출금리 얼마나 낮아질까 - VIVA100](http://m.viva100.com/view.php?key=20240101010009311)
2. [전망 2024 "한은, 늦어도 하반기엔 금리 내린다" - Newspim](https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20231231000076)
3. [2024년 금융시장 전망 | 국내연구자료 - KDI 경제정보센터](https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/domesticView.do?ac=0000179919)